š ASB Partners Nuggets 3.21.25
This is a short weekly email that covers a few things Iāve found interesting during the week.
Interesting Links/Reads
Many links are sourced from Marginal Revolution
"Surprisingly common trait in high agency people is they had heroes and figured out how to meet them all before age 25" Nabeel
. His new book begins by throwing light on Irelandās curious statusāthough Henry VIII declared it a kingdom in 1542, it was governed as a colony; the 1800 Acts of Union that created the United Kingdom did little to change the arrangement, and the political and economic structures that exacerbated the famine were centuries in the making.
This was especially evident in landholding. As a result of the Cromwellian conquest and the penal laws that followed, Catholics, who by the early 18th century made up around 80% of the population, owned only 5% of Irish land. Across the island, the rural poor supported large families on tiny plots, often of no more than one acre. What made this situation sustainable was the widespread cultivation of a new food sourceāa tuberous variety of nightshade, originally from South America, which provided vitamins and calories in abundance.
It arrived in 1845. Somehow, someone imported a potato bearing the spores of Phytophthora infestans. That, Mr. Scanlan explains, was when āa landscape shaped by the demands of the British empire met a pathogen brought to Europe by capitalismās steamships and global trading networks.ā The blight destroyed potato crops on both sides of the Atlantic, leading to deaths everywhere populations depended on them. But only in Ireland did famine lead to social collapse: one million deaths from starvation and disease, with the loss of another 1Ā½ million emigrants continuing its population decline for the next century.
When will Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities? Tyler Cowan
The countries that will get very mad at Israel for such an attack are already close to maximally mad at Israel. Trump has signaled plenty of support, yet there is no guarantee that will last forever.
Just a reminder that you should not forget about this issue, it could be the most important thing that happens this year.
here was very little evidence for this theory beyond some gesturingās towards myelin sheathing. But anyone who doubted the theory was told that there was āno evidenceā that babies feel pain (the conflation of no evidence with evidence of no effect).
In short, we tortured babies under the theory that they were not conscious of pain. What can we learn from this? One lesson is humility about consciousness. Consciousness and the capacity to suffer can exist in forms once assumed to be insensate. When assessing the consciousness of a newborn, an animal, or an intelligent machine, we should weigh observable and circumstantial evidence and not just abstract theory. If we must err, let us err on the side of compassion.
Actually, AI is already being deployed with great success. One example: The Alpha School, launched in Austin, Texas, has a goal of completely reimagining education. Alpha co-founder MacKenzie Price says, āStudents get AI-powered, self-paced learning plans and spend only two hours a day on academics. They learn twice as much in half the time. The rest of the school day is devoted to learning life skills like public speaking, financial literacy, socialization and teamwork.ā To do this, teachers become guides, she explains, ādoing what humans do best: emotional support, motivation and developing a personal connection to students.ā It works. How do we scale this nationwide and then globally?
Podcast/Videos
From the Show Notes:
The Six Key Questions for Evaluating a Supplement
Q1: Are you correcting a deficiency or trying to achieve supramaximal levels?
Why are you taking this supplement?
Are you correcting a deficiency (i.e., replacing something your body lacks)?
Or are you trying to achieve supraphysiologic levels in hopes of enhancing function?
Example: Taking vitamin D to correct a deficiency vs. taking creatine to achieve supranormal levels.
Q2: Are you taking it for lifespan or healthspan?
Is the supplement intended to improve your lifespan, healthspan, or both?
Lifespan focus ā Aimed at increasing longevity and reducing risk of disease.
Healthspan focus ā Aimed at improving quality of life (physical performance, cognition, emotional health).
Some supplements may support both (e.g., fish oil for cardiovascular health).
Q3: If lifespan, is it targeting a specific disease or broadly geroprotective?
If itās taken for lifespan benefits, is it:
Targeting a specific disease (e.g., reducing risk of heart disease or neurodegeneration)?
Broadly geroprotective (i.e., slowing down the aging process in a general way)?
Examples:
Targeting a disease: Taking statins for cardiovascular disease prevention.
Geroprotective approach: Rapamycin, which may broadly delay aging processes.
Q4: Is there a biomarker that you can track to suggest that the supplement is having the desired effect?
Is there a biomarker to track effectiveness?
A biomarker allows you to measure whether a supplement is working as intended.
Example biomarkers:
Omega-3 index for fish oil effectiveness.
25-hydroxy vitamin D for vitamin D levels.
Creatinine levels for kidney function when taking creatine.
If no biomarker exists, effectiveness must be judged subjectively or indirectly.
Q5: Do we understand the mechanism of action?
How does the supplement work?
Understanding how a supplement functions in the body helps assess its potential benefits and risks.
Important note: You donāt need to fully understand the mechanism to justify use.
Example: Some medications are widely used without a complete understanding of their mechanisms.
However, the stronger the understanding of its action, the more confidence one can have in using it.
Q6: What is the balance of risk to reward, including potential side effects, the magnitude of the effect, and the quality of a supplement?
I hope you enjoyed it.
Adam